March 28, 2023
Protesters on January 21, 2023. Thomas SAMSON / AFP

LE FIGARO INFO – Analysts at Place Beauvau expect a historic mobilization. 11,000 police and gendarmes will be mobilized.

The executive, who had not quite properly measured the magnitude of the first wave which fell on January 19 against the pension bill, expects this time a surge of anger. According to the latest forecasts brought to the attention of the Figaro, analysts at Place Beauvau estimate that between 1 and 1.2 million people will take to the streets of France on Tuesday. That is to say a level of protest which should return to the highest peak recorded in the fall of 2010, at the height of the rebellion against the Woerth law defending the passage of the legal retirement age from 60 to 62 years old. .

The gauge will exceed that of the demonstrations in December 2019 against the points retirement project, the first major social shock that Emmanuel Macron had to collect “, anticipates an informed source, recalling that at the time, “ the processions had gathered up to 800,000 opponents before the spring 2020 pandemic interrupted the examination of the law and the movement against it “. In the regions, the mobilization should be particularly strong in Toulouse, Marseille, Montpellier, Lyon as well as traditional cradles of the ultra-left such as Grenoble, Nantes or Rennes.

Surprised by the mobilization in the medium and small towns of France on January 19 last, the specialized services did not see the 4000 demonstrators coming to Gueret (Creuse), the 5000 to Troyes or even to Épinal. And even less the 1000 listed in Verdun or the 550 in Junien in Haute-Vienne. ” Never seenwhispers a police officer. This shows the extent of the crystallization of anger down to the depths of the territories, where the feeling of downgrading predominates. We are in the continuity of the “yellow vests” spirit whose anger is not settled..“. In total, more than 220 processions formed even in the most remote recesses of the territory.

First round of observation

If the storm promises to be strong this Tuesday, the Beauvau experts do not expect the “ big night “: “ The eight major trade union centers are doing everything to keep their hands on the movement and are working to ensure that the dynamic is not cracked by isolated actions “, we decipher from the same source. The autonomous and ultra-left movement, which considered the processions of January 19 as a “ first round of observation “, could come back in force knowing that the intelligence services estimate that there are in France between 2000 and 3000 potential rioters. “ For the moment, we have the feeling that the unions have passed calls for calm and that they will be able to hold the processions, as they did ten days ago “, hopes an analyst who observes a “ permeability allowing messages to pass between certain traditional organizations and more radical groups. Currently in reserve, they could take action at the slightest opportunity in “black bloc” mode, especially if street demonstrations are not enough.

The thorny equation of youth

The policing equation will become even more thorny as high school and college students join the movement in anger. So far in retreat – barely 30 blockages of high schools recorded on January 19 – they could follow in number the calls for mobilization circulated by their unions. The presence of teenagers and young adults in the parades is always a challenge for the police, still marked by the death of Malik Oussekine, in December 1986 in Paris.

As on every day of national action, all eyes will be on Paris where, according to our information, between 80,000 and 100,000 people are expected this Tuesday. In total, no less than eleven thousand police and gendarmes will be mobilized everywhere in France on Tuesday, including 4,000 in Paris, to supervise the processions, announced Monday January 30 in Marseilles the Minister of the Interior Gérald Darmanin. ” It’s 1000 additional police and gendarmes“Compared to the day of demonstrations of January 19, indicated the minister on the sidelines of a trip to Marseille, expressing the wish that the protests take place”under the same conditions without serious incidentthan the previous mobilization.

It is a message of firmness that I am passing on but also of great democratic concern (for) that the French who wish to can demonstrate ” in ” good conditions” thanks to “a very large presence of law enforcement“, he said. ” Because the number obviously makes the security of the processions added Gérald Darmanin. ” It is the honor of the national police and the gendarmerie to allow this right to demonstrate “, according to him.

The Minister warned that people who “would attack the police and the gendarmes, the other demonstrators, the property, will be arrested“, while welcoming the good understanding with the trade union organizations which “play the game“. ” I salute their spirit of responsibility “, he underlined.

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