Ursula von der Leyen’s future decided in tight European Parliament vote

This article was originally published in English

In 2019, Ursula von der Leyen narrowly secured the top job in Brussels, when she was nominated as Commission president by a margin of just nine votes in the European Parliament, the narrowest ever recorded.

Five years later, the 65-year-old German is running for a second term, and a worrying sense of déjà vu reigns in the corridors of Strasbourg.

Indeed, von der Leyen needs an absolute majority in the 720-seat chamber this Thursday if she wants to secure five more years at the head of the executive.

Although the European People’s Party (EPP) is confident she has both the numbers and the “mandate of confidence” after the party’s assured victory in June’s European elections, the margin of the vote could be slim again this year.

Ursula von der Leyen had the merit of guide the European Union during one of its most tumultuous periods, marked by a global pandemic, the war in Ukraine and the energy crisis.

“I think all members of the European Parliament understand what is at stake. It is not only about the personality of Ursula von der Leyen, who has shown her leadership skills (…) but also about the stability of the European Union,” said to Euronews Andrius Kubilius, EPP lawmaker and former Lithuanian Prime Minister.

But she also divides opinion. Right-wing conservatives have criticised her once unwavering commitment to making Europe the world’s first climate-neutral continent, while her left-wing allies have accused her of to cozy up to the hard right and allow him to dilute its green ambitions.

The Socialists and Democrats (S&D) and the liberals of Europe Renewal will probably support her aftershe has committed not to pursue a formal partnership with ultra-conservative forces such as Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy legislators in the next legislature.

Together with the EPP, the three centrist groups hold a total of 401 seats, which is enough to allow the candidate to pass. But it is known that the mavericks among them are likely to reject her, protected by the secrecy of the vote.

The French and Slovenian EPP delegations have already made it known that they would challenge consensus and would vote against their party’s main candidate. Among the Liberals, the Irish delegation is expected to join the opposition in protest at her response to the war between Israel and Hamas, while the Germans, Slovaks and Portuguese are not taking a position.

The Greens, unlikely kingmakers

The uncertainty left Ursula von der Leyen with no choice but to seek additional votes with the Greens and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), a hard-right group, trading political promises to gain their support.

But because the two groups are ideologically estranged – and the Greens are making their support conditional on von der Leyen ruling out any formal cooperation with the ECR – she has been forced to walk a tightrope to secure their support.

Speaking to reporters after an hour-long meeting with the ECR on Tuesday, the outgoing president described the session as “intense” and was accosted by a Polish member of the Law and Justice (PiS) party as she left the room.

“She manipulated the procedure and we will not vote for her,” PiS MEP Arkadiusz Mularczyk told reporters. He admitted, however, that some members of his group would eventually lend their votes to von der Leyen, such as those belonging to the Czech Republic’s Civic Democratic Party (ODS) and Belgium’s New Flemish Alliance (NVA).

It remains unclear how lawmakers from Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (FdI) will vote, after the prime minister, furious at being excluded from the negotiation process, reportedly stepped down. abstained during the reappointment of von der Leyen to the European Council.

The hostility towards Ursula von der Leyen within the ECR means that, despite losing seats in the election, the Greens’ 53 lawmakers could become the kingmakers in the re-election. A Green MEP told Euronews that they were likely to lend him their votes, if only to avoid the “institutional crisis” that would erupt if his candidacy were rejected.

“We recognise that the EPP alternative candidate could be even worse than Mrs von der Leyen,” the MEP said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

“But we still don’t know what it means when she promises not to formally collaborate with hard-right forces such as the ECR.

A decision in a major legal caseThe European Court of Justice (ECJ) said on Wednesday that the Commission had failed to provide “sufficiently broad access” to COVID-19 vaccine contracts.

Although the ruling dealt a blow to von der Leyen on the eve of the vote, it is unlikely to swing the Greens’ vote, a Green MEP confirmed.

The key will be the outgoing president’s big speech on Thursday morning, setting out the priorities for her (potential) five-year term. That’s when the group’s 53 MEPs will make their decision, another Green MEP said.

The alternative is “institutional crisis”

Recent events across the Atlantic may also have tipped the balance in von der Leyen’s favour. Several lawmakers have acknowledged that Donald Trump’s failed assassination attempt could galvanise her voters and boost her chances of returning to the White House in November’s presidential election.

Ursula von der Leyen is a staunch supporter of Ukraine and under her leadership the European Union has provided military, financial and humanitarian aid estimated at around €100 billion.

If its application were to be rejected, the EU would once again sow instability at a time when the future of Western support for the war-torn country appears more fragile than ever.

Diplomats say the lack of a credible alternative to the outgoing president would plunge the Union into an unprecedented “institutional crisis.” The 27 leaders would have up to a month to propose a new name, a task they would certainly not like.

A similar feeling is spreading in the chamber: many MEPs might put aside their complaints and grievances and rally around von der Leyen, a familiar figure with proven credentials, rather than risk a sudden replacement.

“While we do not know how the Americans will behave in the elections, Europe needs stability, and stability comes through the appointment of the institutional leaders of the European Union,” said Andrius Kubilius.

“Those who vote against Mrs von der Leyen will serve Putin’s goals and perhaps those of Mr Orbán: the destabilization and weakening of the European Union.”

This threat is all the more evident since Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán made a “peace mission” which led him, in a controversial mannerin kyiv, Moscow, Beijing and at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida.

It reflects a growing sense of cooperation among political forces skeptical of Western support for Ukraine on both sides of the Atlantic.

Approving Ursula von der Leyen’s candidacy would ensure continuity and stability at a time of deep international uncertainty, another MEP said.