Niccolo Machiavelli, a renowned Renaissance political theorist, wrote in his most notable work, The Prince: “It is better to be feared than to be loved, if one cannot be both.” He argued that fear is a better motivator than love, which is why it is the most effective leadership tool.
Fear tactics are perhaps what the National President of the Cameroon Renaissance Movement, MRC, Professor Maurice Kamto, is using as one of his strategies in his drive to wrest power from the ruling CPDM regime.
Since Maurice Kamto joined the opposition after resigning from the government to launch the MRC, he has been ruffling the feathers of the Biya regime with every move he makes. Some attributes of Kamto’s political style and the aura surrounding him have sent shivers down the spines of the Biya regime’s acolytes. The Biya regime continues to be frightened by Kamto’s continued intrusions into the political landscape with each passing day.
To this end, the regime has taken all sorts of frantic measures to clip his wings or put obstacles in his political path. The Biya regime, frightened and panicked, apparently running out of political ideas, is now using what experts have described as “undemocratic” and “illegal” means to sideline Kamto from the 2025 presidential race.
Having come in second in the October 2018 presidential election (even though he continues to insist that his “victory” was “stolen”), it is clear that Maurice Kamto now constitutes the greatest threat to the Biya regime. The reasons why the Biya regime fears Professor Maurice Kamto are legion.
Secret Symperthists within the CPDM
According to some analysts, Maurice Kamto’s party, the MRC, has, through its lobbying, won the hearts of other political parties, including even within the ruling party, the RDPC.
Analysts say the MRC also has secret sympathisers in other parties such as the Social Democratic Front (SDF); United Socialist Movement, UMS, of Pierre Kwemo and Front for Change in Cameroon, FCC, of Hon Jean Michel Nintcheu.
Kamto’s association with the radical Nintcheu is considered by the Biya regime as a formidable combination. Some CPDM supporters, who are fed up with the regime and secretly harbor the desire for change in the country, but cannot show it in public, are said to be secretly pulling strings behind the scenes to support the MRC.
Many of these CPDM rebel supporters are said to have voted for the MRC in the October 2018 presidential election. This may be explained by the fact that Maurice Kamto won in some CPDM strongholds in those elections. Speculation is growing in some quarters that some regime barons may be secretly funding the MRC.
Political partnerships with other parties
Meanwhile, Kamto’s MRC has endeared itself to other political forces that could easily form a coalition with it to oust the Biya regime from power. This includes civil society, whose influence during an election cannot be overestimated.
It would be recalled that in 1992, when the SDF and other opposition parties formed a coalition called Union for Change, it propelled the then SDF presidential candidate, the late Ni John Fru Ndi, to almost win the 1992 presidential election.
Official results placed Fru Ndi second, with 35.97% of the vote, behind Biya with 39.98%. However, Fru Ndi had declared himself the winner, accusing Yaoundé of rigging the vote. Until his disappearance on June 12, 2023, Fru Ndi continued to insist on his victory in the election.
Given the above, analysts say that only a strong coalition can defeat the Biya regime in the presidential election. The Biya regime is therefore nervous that the opposition could form a strong coalition that would nominate Kamto as its presidential candidate, which would then give a good run for the CPDM candidate.
No doubt, in March this year, the Minister of Territorial Administration, Paul Atanga Nji, ordered the end of the activities of the coalitions of political parties; Political Alliance for Change and Alliance for Political Transition in Cameroon. Atanga Nji declared the coalitions “illegal”, calling them “clandestine movements”.
Human Rights Watch had described Atanga Nji’s actions as part of the government’s crackdown on the opposition.
Strong links with France
Professor Maurice Kamto’s supposedly strong ties with France are also said to be one of the issues giving Biya regime loyalists sleepless nights. His alleged collusion with a foreign power like France presents Kamto as a real threat to Yaounde.
According to some analysts, President Biya’s gradual shift from France to China and Russia has not been well received by some politicians in the French political landscape who consider Cameroon as France’s preserve.
Such French figures, analysts say, might welcome a change in Cameroon’s leadership in exchange for a reversal of policy toward China and Russia.
External lobbying force
Meanwhile, Kamto and his MRC are also said to be using external lobbying institutions to exert pressure on the international scene and pull the wool over Kamto’s eyes.
According to analysts, this powerful external lobby came to the fore when, after the 2018 presidential election, Transparency International came under pressure to forcefully express the refusal of some election observers who were in Cameroon to observe the election, supposedly under the auspices of Transparency International.
The MRC is said to have used its external lobby to pressure Transparency International to abandon the alleged fake election observers, in order to cast doubt on the credibility of the election results.
More and more thirsty for change
The Biya regime has been in power for 42 years and counting. Many Cameroonians, especially the youth, tired of the socio-economic and political stagnation in the country, are hungry for change. Many of these Cameroonians, rightly or wrongly, see the MRC as a party capable of bringing about the desired change.
This is further reinforced by the current perception that the SDF, hitherto seen as the party likely to bring change to Cameroon, is now a satellite party or appendage of the CPDM. Many now believe that they can only pin their hopes for change in Cameroon on Kamto and the MRC.
Strong national support base
A strong popular political base is one of the strengths of any politician or political party. One of Kamto’s strengths lies in its strong national support base, which is not only composed of Bamilekes, but of many actors from all walks of life at the national and international levels.
On the other hand, some disgruntled Anglophones, especially those who support the Ambazonia movement or who have been victims of military operations in the North-West and South-West regions, would be ready to support Kamto and the MRC.
Other anglophones, who are clamoring for a return to the federal system of government, but the government insists on decentralization, may support Kamto and the MRC. Kamto has spoken out in favor of a return to federalism. They will do so, believing that if Kamto ascends to the highest office, he will be able to grant their wish for a federation.
Alleged romance with BAS
Although the MRC has repeatedly insisted that it has no links to the radical diaspora movement, the Brigade Anti-Sardinards (BAS), the Biya regime considers the BAS to be a radical wing of the MRC. BAS is a collective of the Cameroonian diaspora opposed to President Paul Biya and his supporters.
Founded in 2018 by a group of Paris-based activists including Calibri Calibro, the movement emerged following the presidential election that same year, which saw Biya re-elected.
Given that the BAS emerged after an election in which Kamto claimed victory, some political analysts and supporters of the Biya regime are convinced that the radical and violent movement is linked to Kamto’s MRC. The MRC, however, has denied any links to the BAS, which claims to be apolitical.
The PBAS has been violent in its methods. On January 26, 2019, in response to what they called an “electoral hold-up” of the 2018 elections, a few dozen BAS activists broke into the Cameroonian embassy in France and caused enormous damage.
The movement also targets Cameroonians, including journalists, whom it accuses of supporting the Biya regime. Due to its violent nature, analysts fear that the BAS could become an Ambazonia-type movement, and if its supposed links to the MRC are confirmed, this would not bode well for the CPDM regime.
Bamileke financial sponsors
The Bamiléké, the majority supporters of the MRC, are the heavyweights of finance and business in the country, their financial support for the party could be a game changer in the political landscape. It has been suggested that some Bamiléké businessmen, both within the MRC and the RDPC, have mobilized financial resources to finance the campaign of Kamto, himself Bamiléké, in the 2025 presidential election.
Growing media sympathy
Professor Maurice Kamto and the MRC have attracted sympathy from the media landscape. The party also has many bloggers and social media influencers abroad who carry out its propaganda.
Many media outlets in the country are also increasingly interested in the party’s activities. The government has often accused Bamileke media owners of openly showing sympathy for Kamto and the MRC. Such media visibility, analysts are unanimous, is what the CPDM regime fears so much.
The MRC’s constant change of tactics
Kamto and his MRC have also engaged in a constant change of tactics, sometimes leaving the Biya regime confused. When the regime expects Kamto and his supporters to protest on certain issues, the party remains silent, but only acts when least expected.
The MRC president’s courage and even his recent declaration that he was ready to die for the cause he defends have left the regime nervous. Analysts believe that his recent defiant stance could signal the adoption of a radical opposition strategy ahead of the 2025 presidential election. This has left the Biya regime restless.
*This article was first published in issue 3164 of The Guardian Post newspaper on Wednesday 10 July 2024 and translated by the editors.
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