Is Yulia Navalnaya Putin’s New Big Enemy?

This article was originally published in English

Alexei Navalny is probably the most famous Russian opposition politician. He was also controversial because of the racist statements he made early in his political career about people from Central Asia and the indigenous peoples of Russia. Even today, some people do not forgive him for these remarks.

However, his actions gave hope to millions of people, both in Russia and abroad, until his death in a penal colony in February.

In early June, a concert was held on the occasion of Alexei Navalny’s birthday, during which his wife Navalnaya gave a speech: “We are strong, we are brave, we are many. The most important things that distinguish us from those who rule in Russia are dignity, honor, truth and love.”

A Russian arrest warrant has also been issued for Navalnaya.

The human rights activist is in exile today. Since this week, she has been the subject of an arrest warrant by the Russian authorities, who have classified her as a member of an “extremist organization.” A “preventive measure” of two months of imprisonment has been decided. She has evaded preliminary investigations, the press service of the Moscow courts writes on Telegram.

Ms. Navalnaya herself writes on X: “Putin is a murderer and a war criminal. He deserves to go to prison, and not in a comfortable cell in The Hague, but in Russia – in the same 2 by 3 meter cell where he killed Alexei [Navalny].“

Navalny gave hope to the Russian people

A Russian exile named Igor (not his real name) does not describe himself as a Navalny fan, but Navalny has given him hope nonetheless. Igor is originally from Russia, but he left the country in September last year after the partial mobilization was announced and now lives in the EU. He wishes to remain anonymous for fear that his statements could be used against him.

Igor explains why he liked Navalny despite everything: “I don’t necessarily support Navalny, but he did something good for Russia. I found it very impressive that he was not afraid“.

Igor has long doubted Navalny’s sincerity, “but when the state killed him, I understood what the government was capable of“. Igor says he is particularly impressed by the fact that Navalny simply said what everyone knew: “Everyone knew that they [les membres du gouvernement] were lying, but Navalny said it and even proved it to some extent“He is referring here to videos from the Navalny team, such as the one about Putin’s palace, published in 2021, when Navalny was already in prison. It has been viewed more than 130 million times on YouTube.

Igor explains why Navalny was good for the Russian people: “There is a kind of infantilism in Russia: for a long time, the tsar said what to do, and then the Soviet Union. I also had the feeling that many people wanted Navalny to tell them what to do, while he wanted the opposite: Navalny wanted people to choose for themselves how they wanted to live.”

Igor was saddened by Navalny’s death; he believes he had little power from prison. But he sees his death as a symbol”that Russia can wake up from its paralysis“.

The question of who will show the Russian people that once again they can speak out against Putin remains unresolved. Is there such a person as Navalny in Russia today?

Who could become the new leader of the Russian opposition?

Anke Giesen is a board member of the German and international association “Memorial”, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2022 together with a Belarusian and a Ukrainian organization, and has known Russia since the 1980s.

Ms Giesen said she was pessimistic about the emergence of a “new Navalny”. “JI don’t think a figure like Alexei Navalny can appear at this moment, because people tend to go into exile.” Mr. Giesen adds: “Or the pressure in Russia, the surveillance, the laws and the arrests are so extreme that a personality like that cannot develop at the moment.“.

The democratic opposition that is still in Russia and those in exile are still connected, as long as the internet remains free. Putin has already announced several times that he wants to build a cut-off internet for Russia, on the Chinese model. Already today, some international websites are blocked in Russia and can only be accessed via a VPN.

Giesen would like to see the opposition in exile, abroad: “We can also see that Navalny was very convincing as a person. But that doesn’t help democracy. A democracy is supported by institutions that people trust. And I think that’s something that the democratic opposition in exile can also learn from. Institutions are useful, rules are useful. That being subordinate can also be useful, and that it’s not always about imposing personal agendas – that’s what I would like to see as a dynamic among the opposition.“.

The opposition must unite to work effectively

As a political student who grew up in Russia and whose father worked for the Russian opposition, Manvel observes the situation with a certain distance. For him, the opposition is divided into three groups: “SIn my opinion, there are currently three large groups that have the potential for effectiveness. On the one hand, there is the FBK, the Anti-Corruption Foundation, which was previously headed by Alexei Navalny. The second large group is that of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, with the funds that he still had at the time he worked for Yukos. [une ancienne grande compagnie pétrolière non étatique]The third group is the smallest, especially in terms of financial resources. These are public figures such as politician and blogger Maxim Katz, as well as various journalistic editorial offices such as Ekho Moskvy, or political scientists such as Ekaterina Schulmann.“.

Manvel also points out that the unification of the different groups is not desired by some actors. But what unites the opposition? “In In any case, the desire for a peaceful Russia, a Russia with democracy and without disregard for human rights.”

Manvel explains: “My approach is that in order to develop an effective policy against Putin, these opposition members must first create a joint commission or council, as happened in 2012 with the Opposition Coordination Council.“At the time, a committee of 45 people was formed to advance the protests against the re-election of Vladimir Putin as president and his United Russia party.

Increasing the brain and money drain from Russia

Just like Anke Giesen of Memorial, who would like the opposition in exile in the West to have the opportunity to learn how to build democratic institutions, Manvel also has a wish for the opposition, but also for Western countries:

“I would really like to see coordinated work and, ultimately, pragmatic and rational policies. That Western institutions be called upon, so to speak, to increase the brain drain and money drain from Russia.“.

For the young man, it’s about knowing what you want to achieve.”Because we have seen that expats who left Russia and then came back – there is a Bloomberg report on this – have guaranteed up to a third of the increase in GDP in 2023. This is a very important economic layer in Russia that is leaving the country. And we need to motivate these people to come here, so to speak, to work for this economy instead of continuing to support Putin’s economy. And the Russian opposition should demand this again and again and again.“.

Mr Manvel believes that the opposition should repeatedly “urge national parliaments, but also the European Commission and the European Parliament, to make it easier for people to leave Russia“.

He knows that this may seem morally problematic, but for Manvel, it is a question of objective. And if the rational and pragmatic objective is to end the war in Ukraine and weaken the Putin system, “We also need to influence its economy, using the instruments we have here. This is about the brain drain and the money drain – this is also my appeal to Western institutions.“.