French legislative elections: the extreme right could miss the absolute majority (poll)

This article was originally published in English

The Republican Front, which was organized as best it could at the beginning of the week between the centrist and left-wing parties, to counter the victory of the extreme right, could have been a successful tactic.

According to the Harris Interactive poll for Challenges magazine, the first since the formation of an anti-National Rally (RN) alliance, Jordan Bardella’s far-right party may not win the 289 seats needed to control the 577 seats in the National Assembly.

According to forecasts, the RN and its allies should obtain between 190 and 220 seats. As for the center-right Republicans (LR), who have allied themselves with Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, they should obtain between 30 and 50 seats.

This result would probably prevent the possibility of a far-right minority government supported by part of the LR parliamentary group.

The strategy of the “republican front”

The poll follows the withdrawal of more than 200 candidates from various political parties who came third in their constituency in the first round, with the aim of supporting the strongest candidate against the RN in the second round this Sunday.

Before these withdrawals, polls estimated that the RN was on track to win between 250 and 300 seats.

Asked by TF1 if she feared that the RN would not reach the 289 seats needed to obtain an absolute majority, Marine Le Pen responded confidently: “No, I am very confident. The French have a real desire for change.”

According to the Harris poll, the New Popular Front (NFP) is expected to win between 159 and 183 seats, while the Ensemble candidates of the former presidential majority are expected to win only 110 to 135 seats.

The other parties are expected to win between 17 and 31 seats.

But experts remain cautious. Everything could depend on the turnout in the elections. A drop in performance compared to the first round could mechanically favor the RN.

What is the plan in case of a hung parliament?

If the second round result confirms the scenario of a hung parliament, France will enter a period of turbulence, with no party obtaining enough seats to form a government.

Outgoing French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal has expressed optimism about the cross-party initiative aimed at blocking a far-right majority, but dismissed the idea that Ensemble could form a government in the event of a hung parliament.

Instead, he suggested that moderate MPs collaborate on legislation on an individual basis.

According to sources in Mr Macron’s office, the president also ruled out the possibility of forming a coalition with the far-left party La France Insoumise (LFI) led by Jean-Luc Mélenchon. It is unclear whether he discussed other coalition possibilities.

These remarks underscore that even if the RN fails to take power, France could face prolonged political uncertainty until the next presidential election in 2027.

Marine Le Pen ready to collaborate to obtain absolute majority

Ms Le Pen indicated that she was ready to collaborate with other parties if the RN did not obtain an absolute majority.

But Jordan Bardella, a declared candidate for the post of prime minister, repeated that he would refuse to form a government without a clear mandate.

According to the poll, more than 4 in 10 French people think that none of these political parties will obtain an absolute majority in the National Assembly, while 35% think that the National Rally will obtain it.

The survey was conducted online from July 2 to 3 among 3,383 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over.

The quota method and adjustment were applied to the following variables: gender, age, socio-professional category, region and previous electoral behavior of the person interviewed.