Legislative elections: possible scenarios for the second round

This article was originally published in English

A few days before the second round of the French legislative elections, scheduled for July 7, the opponents of the National Rally are struggling to prevent the extreme right from obtaining an absolute majority in the National Assembly.

To do this, the left-wing coalition of the New Popular Front (NFP) quickly announced that its candidates would withdraw in the constituencies where they came in third place to support other stronger candidates opposed to the National Rally (RN).

This Republican Front has worked in the past when the far right was considered a political pariah. But will it have the same effect this time?

Euronews looked at the stakes for the competing blocs and the potential outcomes ahead of the second round.

Voter mobilization will be essential for the left-wing coalition

The left-wing coalition, made up of the Party of France Insoumise (LFI), the Socialists, the Greens and the Communists, will have to rely on tactical voting practices.

“The ad hoc Republican Front is the key to the second round and will be decisive in determining whether the National Rally can obtain an absolute majority of seats,” said Philippe Marlière, professor of French politics at University College London (United Kingdom).

But this requires a massive mobilization of the electorate for this republican front to be effective.

Erwan Lecoeur, political scientist and specialist in the extreme right, believes that the mobilization will not be as effective as in previous years because “A large part of the left-wing electorate is fed up with being asked to sacrifice themselves and vote against their convictions.”

This electoral fatigue could have an impact on Sunday’s vote, he told Euronews.

Macron’s centrist alliance could weaken the Republican Front

For the party of French President Emmanuel Macron, the voting instructions were less clear than for the left.

Some of his allies, such as former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe,** have called on their candidates not to withdraw even if a candidate from the left-wing coalition has a better chance of beating a far-right MP.

“This lack of clarity could weaken the Republican Front because some candidates in the presidential camp are still hesitant to call on their voters to vote for an LFI candidate.”Mr. Marlière told Euronews.

For the past three weeks, Mr Macron and his camp have been running a campaign claiming that the most radical parties in the left-wing coalition, such as LFI, are as dangerous for democracy as the far right.

“It will be very difficult for Mr Macron’s camp to reverse its communication strategy”said Mr. Marlière.

Other analysts believe the centrist alliance will have difficulty forging meaningful alliances by the end of the week.

“Even if there is a surge from the left and the centre between the first and second rounds, the deep divisions and animosity between Mr Macron’s camp, the right-wing conservative Les Républicains and the New Popular Front make an alternative majority governing from the centre unlikely.”said Célia Bélin, policy officer at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), in a statement sent to Euronews.

Mr Lecoeur believes there are only two options left for Mr Macron’s party. The first is for Mr Macron to accept “a cohabitation government with a far-right Prime Minister, which will weaken its powers”he told Euronews.

But if the National Rally fails to secure an absolute majority, which would lead to a hung parliament, Mr Macron could appoint a technical government to manage day-to-day affairs. “but it wouldn’t last long”predicted Mr. Lecoeur.

A technical government means that the president could appoint – with the approval of the other parties – senior officials and prefects who have no particular political leaning to manage day-to-day affairs.

The conservative right divided on the RN

The traditional right-wing conservative party Les Républicains (LR) won 10.2% of the vote on Sunday.

The right-wing party came in fourth place and remains divided on the position to adopt towards the RN a fortiori after the split in the party wanted by its president, now contested, Eric Ciotti who has clearly made an alliance with the RN.

The (non-Ciottist) party refused to give clear voting instructions to its voters for the next round.

But MEP François-Xavier Bellamy, acting co-director, said that “The danger that threatens our country today is the extreme left,” in reference to France Insoumise.

Florence Portelli, vice-president of the LR, declared for her part that she would “vote blank”.

According to Mr Lecoeur, the election results show that the party did better than expected: “LR is almost non-existent at the national level but like the Socialist Party, it has a lot of importance at the more local level.”

“They are present everywhere on the ground, unlike Macron’s party or even La France Insoumise, and that is where their future lies.”he added.