Elections in France: focus on the electorates of political parties

This article was originally published in English

A recent survey has made it possible to refine the reading of the French vote during the early legislative elections, according to age groups and socio-professional categories.

The first round of early legislative elections in France was marked by a high turnout and a record result for the National Rally (RN), training offar right.

The turnout reached 67%. The RN won 33% of the vote and could, next Monday, have a relative or absolute majority in the National Assembly, and take up residence at Matignon.

On the left, the New Popular Front (NFP) came in second with 29% of the vote, while the presidential coalition suffered its second electoral defeat in less than a month, coming in third, only managing to attract one in five voters.

The results recorded by the RN and the centrist coalition Ensemble seem to confirm those obtained three weeks previously during the European elections, the vote which led Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the National Assembly and call early elections.

But what were, broadly speaking, the electorates of each party?

Youth vote largely polarized

According to Ipsos, which surveyed more than 10,200 voters in the days leading up to the first round, the RN is the party that obtained the highest number of votes in all age groups, except among those under 34 and over 70.

The Ensemble coalition comes out on top among seniors (32%), but suffers a real setback among young people, who mainly voted for the NFP. Up to 48% of 18-24 year-olds voted for the left-wing coalition, according to the Ipsos survey.

“One of the keys to Emmanuel Macron’s success was to attract young people in 2017, firstly because he embodied a form of political and generational renewal,” Frédéric Michaud, deputy director general of the OpinionWay polling institute, told Euronews.

“But he has aged, and, above all, there is a much younger incarnation of him today, with Jordan Bardella,” he continues.

The far-right party came in second among young people, winning almost a third of the votes among 18-24 year-olds and 25-34 year-olds.

Jordan Bardella, very popular on TikTok, does not fail to share sequences showing him with his supporters, or praising the policies of the RN.

“For [la gauche radicale] “La France Insoumise (LFI) and the New Popular Front (NFP), in general, are a little more classic. These are votes that traditionally attract young people,” said Mr. Michaud.

The popular vote, the RN’s stock in trade

According to the Ipsos institute, a majority (54%) of people declaring themselves “disadvantaged” massively supported the RN. The far-right party is the one that has undoubtedly obtained the most votes in this socio-professional category (38%), ahead of the left coalition.

Most voters who said they were struggling to make ends meet or were relying on savings and/or loans to get by (41% and 46% respectively) also placed the RN ahead of its left-wing opponents.

“This is a dynamic that has accelerated over the last decade,” Michaud told Euronews, partly due to a “feeling of abandonment and betrayal” that left-wing voters feel towards the Socialist Party, which led the country between 2012 and 2017 under President François Hollande.

Since his arrival at the Élysée, Emmanuel Macron has carried out a series of liberal reforms aimed at reducing the burden of administrative formalities for businesses, raising the retirement age and abolishing the wealth tax. Enough to make the left-wing electorate more receptive to the sirens of the RN “which has been able to talk about purchasing power, their daily concerns, particularly in terms of security”, notes Mr. Michaud.

The protest vote

Unsurprisingly, a majority of voters who say they are satisfied or very satisfied with Mr Macron voted for his centrist coalitionaccording to the Ipsos survey.

A third of those disappointed with Macronism turned to the NFP, but a majority of them (53%) chose to give their vote to the RN.

Is the RN’s score the result of massive support for its theses, or of a protest vote?

“A bit of both,” says Mr. Michaud of OpinionWay. “The National Rally has long been an instrument of sanction against the power in place, the expression of anger, of a protest in any case.”

“It still exists, but we are seeing more and more votes of support (…) so it is not only a way of opposing, it is also a choice of ideological support for the different measures that are proposed by Jordan Bardella’s party,” he added.