Four lessons to be learned from the French legislative elections

This article was originally published in English

For the second time in less than a month, the ruling party, that of President Emmanuel Macron, was badly beaten by the far-right National Rally (RN). The latter came out on top in the first round of the country’s early legislative elections.

As a reminder, Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called early elections on June 9, after the RN won the European elections, obtaining more than double the votes of its candidates.

Emmanuel Macron’s decision has been described by commentators as a ploy to regain the absolute majority lost two years ago, or as a dangerous gamble that could allow the far right to lead the country for the first time.

Euronews presents the main lessons from this first round.

The far right makes historic progress

The National Rally (RN), led by Jordan Bardella, 28, appears to have consolidated its position as the country’s main political force by winning more than 33% of the vote nationally.

If this score is confirmed next Sunday in the second round, the party could obtain between 230 and 280 seats, only nine seats short of an absolute majority.

Mr Bardella pledged on Sunday to be “the prime minister of all French people […] respectful of the opposition, open to dialogue and concerned at all times with the unity of the people“, while attacking the alliance of Emmanuel Macron and the left-wing New Popular Front.

The second round, he added, will be “one of the most decisive (votes) in the history of the Fifth Republic“.

The far right’s leap in the first round constitutes a historic performance for the party and in the history of its figures in the legislative elections.

In 2017, the National Front obtained 13% of the vote in the first round and in 2022, it obtained 18% of the vote.

Tara Varma, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington DC, told Euronews that “What we see is that people are no longer ashamed to vote for the National Rally.“.

“Not only are they no longer ashamed to do it, but they are no longer ashamed to say it.” she added.

Even if a scenario where the RN would obtain an absolute majority in Parliament is not “most likely“, this cannot be”excluded” she added.

Macron’s great defeat

Three weeks after suffering a crushing defeat in the European elections, Emmanuel Macron’s coalition Ensemble has been dealt a further devastating blow, coming in third with just 21% of the national vote.

This represents respectively 12 and 7 points less than the far-right party, the RN and the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP).

Around 300 of its candidates are still in the running for a seat in the 577-seat chamber. But if its first-round score is confirmed next Sunday, the presidential majority could lose up to 180 seats and retain only between 70 and 100 deputies.

If no other alliance obtains an absolute majority, Emmanuelle Macron could in theory try to form a government coalition, but this would be difficult to organize.

The presidential camp has repeatedly rejected any idea of ​​working with La France Insoumise (LFI), with Emmanuel Macron himself having declared that if the RN or LFI came to power, it would lead to a “civil war“.

The parties that Emmanuel Macron could therefore try to rally to a more “moderate” would be the socialists, the Greens and the Republicans, on the right.

But it is not certain that they can find an area of ​​agreement or that they will have the necessary 289 seats together.

Is there a “republican front” against the RN?

Within minutes of the results, left-wing political leaders began calling for a “Republican front.”

They pledged to withdraw candidates who came in third place and qualified for the second round, in order to prevent the RN from winning seats.

This is the case of the LFI, the socialists, the Greens and the communists, but also of certain members of Macron’s party.

“I say this with all the strength that each of our voters must muster. Not a single vote must go to the National Rally.“, declared Prime Minister Gabriel Attal in his speech this Sunday.

Other members of the Macron camp called on their voters not to support LFI members, believing that neither the RN nor Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party, which is part of the left-wing coalition, should obtain new votes.

For Mathias Bernard, specialist in French political history and president of the University of Clermont Auvergne, “Withdrawals or, conversely, triangular contests are the key to the election“.

“If each of the three blocs goes it alone in the second round, the RN has every chance of obtaining an absolute majority. If there is a sort of ‘republican front’, it will be more difficult for the RN.” he told Euronews.

“However, it is not certain that this “republican front” is materializing, he added.

High turnout in early elections

Several voters told Euronews before the vote that they were disappointed with the president’s policies and wanted change.

Turnout, which is often low in France, increased significantly in these elections.

In the first round of the 2017 and 2022 legislative elections, turnout did not reach 50%, according to figures from the Ministry of the Interior. The first round of this election saw turnout climb to 66.7%.

“The high turnout and small number of candidates led to an unprecedented number of three-way second-round races“, according to Célia Belin, director of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

The refusal of the presidential coalition to systematically withdraw in the event of the presence of LFI candidates could however “increase confusion among anti-RN voters about the best course of action” she said.

Manon Aubry, a left-wing MEP, told reporters on Sunday that she had met many young people voting for the first time when she went to the polls in Paris.

“This mobilization, particularly in disadvantaged neighborhoods, should be welcomed and expanded.” she said.

The results also sparked protests across the country, with thousands of left-wing voters rallying to oppose the far-right.